Bet Builders

AFC Wimbledon have a really strong record against their fellow top 10 sides in 2025. From nine games, they have won or drawn eight times, only losing at home to League Two runners-up Port Vale.

Notts County, on the other hand, have a poor record against top 10 sides in 2025, losing seven out of 10 fixtures. This is obviously less than ideal when heading into a play-off campaign, and shows that their patient style does not seem to wash against the division's better teams. Over the last 12 games, the form table has County in 17th position.

James Tilley is probably better known as a winger, but this season has most operated as a wing-back, whether from the left or right. He is a shoot-on-sight kind of player, with 32 of his 59 shots this season being taken from outside the box. It may be that kind of effort which can break the deadlock in this game.

Tilley has taken one or more shots in 26 out of 36 starts, which backs up the points made above. On the final day, Tilley operated from right wing back, allowing him to cut inside on his favoured left foot. This would be preferable for our bet, but not the be-all and end-all given his season-long stats and tendency to shoot from various positions.

Abbott has enjoyed a successful first season in senior football on loan from Spurs. The England youth international is into double figures for combined goals and assists, and even won the EFL’s goal of the season competition.

The energetic midfielder enjoys getting forward to support his attacking colleagues and has taken at least one shot in 30 of 37 appearances this season, including in both fixtures against AFC Wimbledon.  Like Tilley, the majority of Abbott’s shots are taken from outside the box, which we think there will be plenty of in a tight game like this.

Raphinha has taken 40 shots on target across his 32 appearances in La Liga this season (1.43 per 90) and has found the target in four of his last five league appearances.

He has registered five goal contributions against Real Madrid this season (three goals, two assists) and has found the target at least once in each of Barcelona’s three games against them this term.

The Real Madrid backline is missing several key players and after his goal against Inter in the Champions League during the week, Raphinha looks well placed for a shot on target here.

Barcelona have already got the better of Real Madrid on three occasions this season. Their first victory was a 4-0 win at the Bernabeu, they followed this up with a 5-2 victory in the Super Cup before beating Real Madrid 3-2 in the Copa del Rey final.

As well as Barcelona’s dominant record against Real Madrid, the Real backline has been injury struck all season and still has several notable absentees. Antonio Rudiger, Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, Ferland Mendy and Eder Militao are all injured for this game.

Barcelona have won 13 of their 17 home games this season and have scored more goals at home than any other side in La Liga (46), Real Madrid will struggle to cope with them again here.

Bellingham has looked a frustrated figure at times this season, the campaign hasn’t quite gone to plan for Los Blancos. He committed two fouls in the most recent meeting against Barcelona and was shown a yellow card, too.

He also committed two fouls in the initial league meeting between the sides at the Bernabeu and has committed two fouls in three of his last five matches in all competitions. Bellingham has been cautioned in his last two matches and could grow frustrated if Barcelona take control of this match.

Obviously, Sheffield United do not need to win this match. However, there are many reasons why it is likely that they can go on and do so here. From a historical context, two teams have won the first leg of their play-off ties 3-0, and both went on to win the second leg comfortably as well (Crawley 5-1 MK Dons 2024, Barnsley 3-1 Walsall 2016).

Taking this tie in particular though, Sheffield United will be at home, which provides its own motivation. Bristol City have to come out and attack at some stage, probably from very early on, which makes them vulnerable to the counter attack. Chris Wilder is likely to want his team to go into the play-off final with some positive momentum as well.

Even at 11v11 in the first leg, Sheffield United looked the most likely to break the deadlock. The easiest way to keep the nerves at bay for United is to extend their aggregate lead, and taking the lead obviously gives them a great chance of going on to win the game.

The basis of this leg comes from historical context. The vast majority of two-legged semi-finals that already have a three or more goal advantage coming into the second leg also see a lot of goals in the second leg. Six of the seven semi-finals that have this context saw over 2.5 goals occur in the second leg.

From a tactical perspective this makes sense, with Bristol City knowing that they have to come out and attack. Even if Sheffield United get the first goal, City have no other choice than to go out for goals, which, again will leave them more open on the counter-attack.

Peck has beaten this line in each of his last four starts, and in seven of his last eight, so it seems like quite a gift that we are being given a sizeable odds against price for this to occur again.

Whilst it makes sense for Peck to initially play a slightly more defensive role given Sheffield United position in the tie, we have already stated how we like United’s chances for a win, and the game state can dictate goals, so, overall, there is no reason to believe that Peck’s shooting instincts will be discouraged.

McCrorie has beaten this line in three of his last seven matches, and was already on one shot in the first leg when the red card came, and Bristol City managed only one shot overall after that.

In a situation in which Bristol City simply have to fire off a lot of shots to try and get the goals they need, McCrorie cutting in from the left and attacking the box is a potential route to goal. Remembering that he scored twice against Preston on the final day of the season when they needed him to, McCrorie is someone that Manning should trust too rise to the occasion.

Cole Palmer looks a solid shout to score or assist. He ended his goal drought with a cool penalty against Liverpool and now has 23 goal contributions in 34 Premier League appearances. He also found the net in Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Newcastle earlier in the season, and looks to be hitting form just when Chelsea need him most.

Over 2.5 goals looks a strong play here. Newcastle have seen this line land in four of their last five Premier League games, while Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five, and with both sides chasing a Champions League spot, the stakes should lead to an open contest.

The last league meeting ended 2-1 to Chelsea and six of the last seven head-to-head meeting have seen both teams score.

Trippier looks good value for a card here. He’ll be up against the tricky Noni Madueke, who draws over a foul per 90 and thrives in 1v1 situations. Trippier is no stranger to fouling, averaging 1.12 per game and committing three fouls in Newcastle's last home match.

He didn't play the last time the sides met in the EFL Cup, but Emile Krafth, who filled in at right-back on that day, committed two fouls against the Blues and was regularly tested.

Ollie Watkins is still Aston Villa’s biggest goal threat, he’s scored 15 goals in the Premier League for Unai Emery’s side this campaign, making him their top scorer, seven clear of Morgan Rogers in second (8).

His last goal came against Newcastle on the 19th April so he has been a little quiet in recent weeks, but he should get opportunities here due to Bournemouth’s open and aggressive style of play, as well as Aston Villa needing a positive result in their hunt for a spot in the Champions League.

Watkins scored and assisted in this fixture last season which ended in a 2-2 draw, so he should have some good memories of the Vitality Stadium. Watkins had three shots with two of these finding the target in the initial meeting between the sides which indicates that he should get decent service here.

Semenyo typifies Andoni Iraola’s style of play. His physicality in the final third feeds in directly to Bournemouth’s aggressive pressing structure, but this also puts him at risk of picking up bookings - especially against a side like Villa who have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season. 

He has committed 66 fouls across his 34 Premier League appearances this season (2.02 per 90). He committed three fouls and was shown a yellow card in the initial meeting between the sides, Bournemouth committed 14 fouls in the game overall. 

Semenyo has received nine yellow cards in the Premier League this season, no Bournemouth player has received more cautions than the 25-year-old in the top flight.

Bournemouth have been one of the most aggressive sides in the Premier League this season, averaging 13.5 fouls per game - more than any other team. But this isn’t about frustration boiling over, it’s more about the way they choose to play. They’ve been in the top three for fouls per game all season, which shows this is a consistent part of their approach, not just the occasional flare-up.

When they faced Villa at Villa Park earlier in the season, they racked up 14 fouls. That wasn’t a one-off as they've hit double digits for fouls in each of their last five league matches and can hit the 13 mark here against one of the divisions most fouled sides.

Evanilson has enjoyed a superb debut season in the Premier League for Bournemouth. He’s scored 10 goals across his 28 appearances in the top flight which is a commendable record considering that none of these goals have come from the penalty spot. Only Justin Kluivert (12) has scored more goals for Bournemouth in the Premier League this season than the Brazilian striker.

He’s had 30 shots on target across his 28 Premier League appearances this term (1.30 per 90). He scored in the initial meeting between the sides, coming off the bench to register one of his first goals for the Cherries and has developed steadily since then.

Bournemouth are averaging 5.4 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, only Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool are finding the target with more frequency in the top flight this season.

Bournemouth are averaging 13.5 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season - more than any other side in the division. This is a direct result of how they play as opposed to frustration leaking through. Bournemouth have ranked in the top three for fouls committed per game all season which shows that they have a consistency to how they approach games.

They committed 14 fouls in the initial meeting between the sides at Villa Park and have committed 10+ fouls in each of their last five Premier League games with this total rising to 11+ fouls committed in four of these games.

This should be quite a competitive game seeing as both sides are looking to cement a spot in Europe next season. There is only one place between them in the league table and Bournemouth could cut the gap to Villa to just four points with a victory here.

BTTS landed in the initial meeting between these sides at Villa Park, Unai Emery’s side have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their last five games in all competitions, seeing BTTS in three of these encounters. Bournemouth haven’t fared much better defensively, only keeping two clean sheets across their last five games and seeing BTTS in each of the other three fixtures.

BTTS has landed in the last three head to head meetings between the sides and Bournemouth in particular will feel they have a real chance here of qualifying for Europe for the very first time - eight of Aston Villa’s nine losses in the Premier League this season have come on the road.