Football Tips

AFC Wimbledon have a really strong record against their fellow top 10 sides in 2025. From nine games, they have won or drawn eight times, only losing at home to League Two runners-up Port Vale.

Notts County, on the other hand, have a poor record against top 10 sides in 2025, losing seven out of 10 fixtures. This is obviously less than ideal when heading into a play-off campaign, and shows that their patient style does not seem to wash against the division's better teams. Over the last 12 games, the form table has County in 17th position.

James Tilley is probably better known as a winger, but this season has most operated as a wing-back, whether from the left or right. He is a shoot-on-sight kind of player, with 32 of his 59 shots this season being taken from outside the box. It may be that kind of effort which can break the deadlock in this game.

Tilley has taken one or more shots in 26 out of 36 starts, which backs up the points made above. On the final day, Tilley operated from right wing back, allowing him to cut inside on his favoured left foot. This would be preferable for our bet, but not the be-all and end-all given his season-long stats and tendency to shoot from various positions.

Abbott has enjoyed a successful first season in senior football on loan from Spurs. The England youth international is into double figures for combined goals and assists, and even won the EFL’s goal of the season competition.

The energetic midfielder enjoys getting forward to support his attacking colleagues and has taken at least one shot in 30 of 37 appearances this season, including in both fixtures against AFC Wimbledon.  Like Tilley, the majority of Abbott’s shots are taken from outside the box, which we think there will be plenty of in a tight game like this.

Man City average 1.91 goals per game, the second-highest in the Premier League, and they face a Southampton side with the league’s worst defensive record, shipping 2.34 goals per game. Pep Guardiola’s side come into this fixture in red-hot form with four straight wins and a seven-game unbeaten run.

Southampton have lost nine of their last 11 and have conceded three or more goals in six of these matches. City fired five past Crystal Palace a few weeks back and should be able to net a few here.

Everton have struggled away from Goodison Park, managing only four wins on the road all season. Everton also haven’t beaten Fulham in their last seven meetings, with the Cottagers winning three of these contests.

Fulham were moments away from winning the reverse fixture, before Beto equalised in injury time (1-1). Fulham posted a better xG of 1.25 to Everton’s 0.79 on that occasion and have won three of their last five home league matches.

Wolves have been in strong form, going unbeaten in seven matches - including six straight wins - before narrowly losing 1-0 to an in-form Man City last weekend. Defensive issues that plagued them earlier in the season have eased, with just six goals conceded in their last eight games.

In contrast, Brighton have struggled, winning only once in their last seven and failing to win away from home since February. Wolves look a solid bet to avoid defeat.

This selection has landed in all of Ipswich Town’s last seven matches, and four of Brentford’s last seven. Defensively, Brentford concede around 1.51 goals per game, which contributes to the high-scoring nature of many of their matches - Ipswich will fancy their chances of scoring here. The reverse fixture ended in a 4-3 Brentford win, a similar scoreline could be on the cards again.

Raphinha has taken 40 shots on target across his 32 appearances in La Liga this season (1.43 per 90) and has found the target in four of his last five league appearances.

He has registered five goal contributions against Real Madrid this season (three goals, two assists) and has found the target at least once in each of Barcelona’s three games against them this term.

The Real Madrid backline is missing several key players and after his goal against Inter in the Champions League during the week, Raphinha looks well placed for a shot on target here.

Barcelona have already got the better of Real Madrid on three occasions this season. Their first victory was a 4-0 win at the Bernabeu, they followed this up with a 5-2 victory in the Super Cup before beating Real Madrid 3-2 in the Copa del Rey final.

As well as Barcelona’s dominant record against Real Madrid, the Real backline has been injury struck all season and still has several notable absentees. Antonio Rudiger, Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, Ferland Mendy and Eder Militao are all injured for this game.

Barcelona have won 13 of their 17 home games this season and have scored more goals at home than any other side in La Liga (46), Real Madrid will struggle to cope with them again here.

Bellingham has looked a frustrated figure at times this season, the campaign hasn’t quite gone to plan for Los Blancos. He committed two fouls in the most recent meeting against Barcelona and was shown a yellow card, too.

He also committed two fouls in the initial league meeting between the sides at the Bernabeu and has committed two fouls in three of his last five matches in all competitions. Bellingham has been cautioned in his last two matches and could grow frustrated if Barcelona take control of this match.

Hammarby have looked strong this season, beating top sides like Malmö FF and Djurgården and dismantling Göteborg 4-0, while creating the second-highest xG in Allsvenskan. They dominate possession and matches, especially at home, and come into this one off the back of a commanding 3-0 win over Östers.

Norrköping, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.66 xG per game, and tend to fall short against higher-quality opposition.

Degerfors have won just one of their last five games and are struggling at both ends of the pitch, conceding 11 goals and failing to keep a clean sheet since Matchday 2. The loss of key striker Omar Faraj has hit them hard. Malmö, despite some early-season issues, still boast far greater squad quality and attacking firepower, and this looks like a good opportunity for them to bounce back against an out-of-form Degerfors side.

Sandefjord have won three of their first five games, boast a perfect home record, and all their victories have come with clean sheets, showing clear defensive improvement. With in-form striker Stefan Ingi Sigurdarson leading the line, they look well-balanced and confident.

Valerenga, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four, are struggling defensively at this level, and could be without key playmaker Henrik Bjordal. Backing Sandefjord Draw No Bet looks a smart way to side with the form team.

Sarpsborg games are usually open and high-scoring, with their last home match ending in a 3-2 defeat, and they have the attacking quality to trouble Ham Kam’s weak defence. Ham Kam have conceded heavily against stronger sides this season, including 5-2 and 3-0 defeats to Viking and Bodo Glimt, and last year’s 7-1 win at this ground shows this fixture has a history of goals. Both sides could contribute here, making over 2.5 goals a solid shout.

Obviously, Sheffield United do not need to win this match. However, there are many reasons why it is likely that they can go on and do so here. From a historical context, two teams have won the first leg of their play-off ties 3-0, and both went on to win the second leg comfortably as well (Crawley 5-1 MK Dons 2024, Barnsley 3-1 Walsall 2016).

Taking this tie in particular though, Sheffield United will be at home, which provides its own motivation. Bristol City have to come out and attack at some stage, probably from very early on, which makes them vulnerable to the counter attack. Chris Wilder is likely to want his team to go into the play-off final with some positive momentum as well.

Even at 11v11 in the first leg, Sheffield United looked the most likely to break the deadlock. The easiest way to keep the nerves at bay for United is to extend their aggregate lead, and taking the lead obviously gives them a great chance of going on to win the game.

The basis of this leg comes from historical context. The vast majority of two-legged semi-finals that already have a three or more goal advantage coming into the second leg also see a lot of goals in the second leg. Six of the seven semi-finals that have this context saw over 2.5 goals occur in the second leg.

From a tactical perspective this makes sense, with Bristol City knowing that they have to come out and attack. Even if Sheffield United get the first goal, City have no other choice than to go out for goals, which, again will leave them more open on the counter-attack.

Peck has beaten this line in each of his last four starts, and in seven of his last eight, so it seems like quite a gift that we are being given a sizeable odds against price for this to occur again.

Whilst it makes sense for Peck to initially play a slightly more defensive role given Sheffield United position in the tie, we have already stated how we like United’s chances for a win, and the game state can dictate goals, so, overall, there is no reason to believe that Peck’s shooting instincts will be discouraged.

McCrorie has beaten this line in three of his last seven matches, and was already on one shot in the first leg when the red card came, and Bristol City managed only one shot overall after that.

In a situation in which Bristol City simply have to fire off a lot of shots to try and get the goals they need, McCrorie cutting in from the left and attacking the box is a potential route to goal. Remembering that he scored twice against Preston on the final day of the season when they needed him to, McCrorie is someone that Manning should trust too rise to the occasion.

Cole Palmer looks a solid shout to score or assist. He ended his goal drought with a cool penalty against Liverpool and now has 23 goal contributions in 34 Premier League appearances. He also found the net in Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Newcastle earlier in the season, and looks to be hitting form just when Chelsea need him most.

Over 2.5 goals looks a strong play here. Newcastle have seen this line land in four of their last five Premier League games, while Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five, and with both sides chasing a Champions League spot, the stakes should lead to an open contest.

The last league meeting ended 2-1 to Chelsea and six of the last seven head-to-head meeting have seen both teams score.

Trippier looks good value for a card here. He’ll be up against the tricky Noni Madueke, who draws over a foul per 90 and thrives in 1v1 situations. Trippier is no stranger to fouling, averaging 1.12 per game and committing three fouls in Newcastle's last home match.

He didn't play the last time the sides met in the EFL Cup, but Emile Krafth, who filled in at right-back on that day, committed two fouls against the Blues and was regularly tested.

Venezia have seen Over 1.5 Goals in four of their last five matches in all competitions.

Fiorentina have seen Over 1.5 Goals in four of their last five matches in all competitions.

Our goals algorithm rates this game 2nd for Over 1.5 Goals on Monday, with a score of 7.63.

Vejle have seen Over 1.5 Goals in three their last five matches in all competitions.

Lyngby have seen Over 1.5 Goals in four of their last five matches in all competitions.

Our goals algorithm rates this game 3rd for Over 1.5 Goals on Monday, with a score of 7.15.

Kayserispor have seen Over 1.5 Goals land in three of their last five matches in all competitions.

Antalyaspor have seen Over 1.5 Goals land in three of their last five matches in all competitions.

Our goals algorithm rates this game 4th for Over 1.5 Goals on Saturday, with a score of 6.45.

Sheffield United have seen Over 1.5 Goals land in each of their last five matches in all competitions.

Bristol City have seen Over 1.5 Goals land in each of their last five matches in all competitions.

Our goals algorithm rates this game 1st for Over 1.5 Goals on Monday, with a score of 9.40.

Ollie Watkins is still Aston Villa’s biggest goal threat, he’s scored 15 goals in the Premier League for Unai Emery’s side this campaign, making him their top scorer, seven clear of Morgan Rogers in second (8).

His last goal came against Newcastle on the 19th April so he has been a little quiet in recent weeks, but he should get opportunities here due to Bournemouth’s open and aggressive style of play, as well as Aston Villa needing a positive result in their hunt for a spot in the Champions League.

Watkins scored and assisted in this fixture last season which ended in a 2-2 draw, so he should have some good memories of the Vitality Stadium. Watkins had three shots with two of these finding the target in the initial meeting between the sides which indicates that he should get decent service here.

Semenyo typifies Andoni Iraola’s style of play. His physicality in the final third feeds in directly to Bournemouth’s aggressive pressing structure, but this also puts him at risk of picking up bookings - especially against a side like Villa who have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season. 

He has committed 66 fouls across his 34 Premier League appearances this season (2.02 per 90). He committed three fouls and was shown a yellow card in the initial meeting between the sides, Bournemouth committed 14 fouls in the game overall. 

Semenyo has received nine yellow cards in the Premier League this season, no Bournemouth player has received more cautions than the 25-year-old in the top flight.

Bournemouth have been one of the most aggressive sides in the Premier League this season, averaging 13.5 fouls per game - more than any other team. But this isn’t about frustration boiling over, it’s more about the way they choose to play. They’ve been in the top three for fouls per game all season, which shows this is a consistent part of their approach, not just the occasional flare-up.

When they faced Villa at Villa Park earlier in the season, they racked up 14 fouls. That wasn’t a one-off as they've hit double digits for fouls in each of their last five league matches and can hit the 13 mark here against one of the divisions most fouled sides.

Ajax remain in the race for the Eredivisie title, but recent results have cast some doubt over their dominance. A shock 4-0 loss to Utrecht and a frustrating 1-1 draw with Sparta Rotterdam have seen their lead at the top trimmed to just four points, with PSV breathing down their neck. 

That said, Ajax return to the Johan Cruyff Arena, where they boast an exceptional record against NEC Nijmegen. The Amsterdam giants have not lost to NEC since 2001, a staggering unbeaten run stretching over 20 matches. Ajax have won seven of the last nine encounters between the two sides, drawing the other two.

While they typically dominate this fixture, it’s worth noting that NEC have managed to score in four of their defeats against Ajax, which makes the Ajax to win and both teams to score market particularly appealing at 2.75.

Besiktas continue their push for a top-three finish and possible Champions League qualification as they prepare to host struggling Adana Demirspor. The home side currently sit 4th in the league and come into this fixture unbeaten in their last three matches, including a vital 2-1 win over Fenerbahce and a 2-0 victory over Hatayspor. Their form is on an upward trend at just the right time. 

On the other hand, Adana Demirspor have had a torrid season. Without a single win in their last 16 matches, they’ve suffered 14 defeats during that time. However, they’ve managed to score in seven of these losses, showing some attacking capability despite their poor run. 

Historically, Besiktas have enjoyed this matchup, having won convincingly in recent meetings, including two 4-1 victories. We could see a similar scoreline again here.

Napoli are closing in on the Serie A title and currently hold a slender three-point advantage at the top of the table. With only a few matches left, every point is crucial, and they’ll be aiming to secure all three against Genoa at home. Napoli are in strong form, unbeaten in their last nine league matches, with six wins during this run.

They’ve been solid at both ends of the pitch and have shown the mentality of champions, grinding out results when needed. Their record against Genoa is also impressive, they remain unbeaten in the last five meetings, including three victories. 

Genoa, meanwhile, are on a downward trajectory, having lost their last three games. Despite this poor run, they have managed to find the net in two of their recent defeats to Napoli. That makes the Napoli to win and both teams to score market attractive, especially at odds of 4.33. Napoli have seen this market land in two of their lats four home matches, this selection also won in Genoa's last match against AC Milan (2-1).

Evanilson has enjoyed a superb debut season in the Premier League for Bournemouth. He’s scored 10 goals across his 28 appearances in the top flight which is a commendable record considering that none of these goals have come from the penalty spot. Only Justin Kluivert (12) has scored more goals for Bournemouth in the Premier League this season than the Brazilian striker.

He’s had 30 shots on target across his 28 Premier League appearances this term (1.30 per 90). He scored in the initial meeting between the sides, coming off the bench to register one of his first goals for the Cherries and has developed steadily since then.

Bournemouth are averaging 5.4 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, only Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool are finding the target with more frequency in the top flight this season.

Bournemouth are averaging 13.5 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season - more than any other side in the division. This is a direct result of how they play as opposed to frustration leaking through. Bournemouth have ranked in the top three for fouls committed per game all season which shows that they have a consistency to how they approach games.

They committed 14 fouls in the initial meeting between the sides at Villa Park and have committed 10+ fouls in each of their last five Premier League games with this total rising to 11+ fouls committed in four of these games.

This should be quite a competitive game seeing as both sides are looking to cement a spot in Europe next season. There is only one place between them in the league table and Bournemouth could cut the gap to Villa to just four points with a victory here.

BTTS landed in the initial meeting between these sides at Villa Park, Unai Emery’s side have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their last five games in all competitions, seeing BTTS in three of these encounters. Bournemouth haven’t fared much better defensively, only keeping two clean sheets across their last five games and seeing BTTS in each of the other three fixtures.

BTTS has landed in the last three head to head meetings between the sides and Bournemouth in particular will feel they have a real chance here of qualifying for Europe for the very first time - eight of Aston Villa’s nine losses in the Premier League this season have come on the road.