The Serie A title race is perfectly poised with three games to play. Antonio Conte's Napoli are just one point ahead of Champions League finalists Inter Milan, while there's the mouth-watering prospect of a first-ever play-off for the title if the teams end up on the same points, because both head-to-head meetings this season ended in draws.

Serie A Run-In Analysis

Napoli face a significantly easier run-in on paper, although both sides have been vulnerable to slip-ups against weaker opponents, and it’s likely that we will see points dropped.

Napoli's remaining opponents have an average points per game of 0.90 this season, whereas Inter's are at 1.56.

Next up for Napoli is a tricky trip to Parma (16th), who, despite their league position, could pose a significant threat with their dynamic style of play. Following that, Conte’s men will welcome Cagliari (14th) to Naples on the final day, in what might be a more straightforward clash.

Inter’s two remaining fixtures involve first hosting Champions League hopefuls, Lazio (6th), ahead of a visit to high-flying Como (10th) on the final day. Notably, Como, under Cesc Fabregas, are currently Europe's most in-form side, having won each of their last six, conceding just two goals in the process.

It’s also worth mentioning that alongside their Scudetto ambitions, Inter will also be travelling to Munich for the Champions League final, just six days after they wrap up their Serie A season.

The Nerazurri have rotated heavily across each of their last two league games, and this could be a feature going forward, as they aim to reduce the risk of any significant injuries.

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Inter Milan v Lazio

For perhaps the first time this season, Inter have managed to sustainably rest their most crucial players while nonetheless getting the results they need. They’ve set themselves up nicely such that they could play a strong and fully fit XI against Lazio, before resting in the last matchweek ahead of the UCL Final.

This could benefit the pace at which Inter start the game, although they’ve consistently been pretty strong in this department. Inter have scored at least one goal in the first half in 72% of their home matches, averaging 1.11 goals in each. 

Additionally, the fresh legs could help Inter see out a clean sheet, rather than faltering in the later stages of the match as they often have. Inter have kept a clean sheet in approximately two-thirds of their wins this season, and have won to nil in four of their last five clashes with Lazio.

Parma v Napoli

Backing Parma, who have been a regular thorn in the side of some of Serie A’s top teams, to take points off Napoli could be a smart play. Parma have already recorded big wins against Milan, Lazio, Bologna, and Juventus, in addition to draws vs Fiorentina (x2), Bologna, Juventus, Inter, and Lazio. Notably, four of those upsets have occurred in Parma’s last six matches.

Additionally, when they do go down, it tends not to be by a vast margin. They’ve won 32 of their 36 league games to date, when accounting for a +2 goal handicap. This includes an ongoing run of 13 during which period the selection would have come home against Lazio, Juventus, Fiorentina, Inter, Bologna, and Roma.

Aiding both of the above selections is Parma’s home record, which is significantly better than that when on the road, scoring 22% more goals, all while conceding the same number. They have averaged 66% more points per game when at home, in contrast to Napoli, who have fared marginally worse when away from home.

Serie A Winner Outright

In our Serie A 24/25 Outright Predictions from pre-season, we tipped Inter to win Serie A and Napoli to win it (without Inter) at 4.33, despite the latter’s dismal showing last season.

The bookies favour Napoli, but it’s an open race, and the league leaders still don’t look fully convincing in their performances.

With Inter now able to focus solely on these final two games, they stand a strong chance of overturning Napoli’s lead and a bet could be merited at 3/1.

That said, these odds are much shorter than the 5/1 on offer before Napoli’s draw with Genoa, despite the outcome still remaining out of Inter’s hands. 

Given Napoli are also pretty short at 1.36, at this moment in time, picking between the markets feels somewhat like flipping a coin, with the bookies having seemingly accurately weighed up the probability of each side winning, and the returns they have on offer.

We’ll be steering clear of this market, at least until the odds shift after this weekend's matches, however, both Inter and Napoli come with their appeals, so feel free to use this to guide your decision.

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