The Basque Derby is historically one of Spain’s most intense rivalries, and Real Sociedad’s recent disciplinary record only fuels the case for cards. La Real are averaging 2.5 cards per home game this season and have received three or more in nine of their last 15 at Reale Arena. Their aggressive pressing and reactive defending in high-pressure games often leads to rash challenges.

Athletic Bilbao help inflate this line further: they draw an average of 2.57 cards per game when playing away, forcing opponents into fouls through wide overloads and transitional threat. In the last two derbies, Real Sociedad were shown four cards in each, underlining how emotionally charged this fixture is.

If you’re looking for a player to make the difference, Oyarzabal is your man. With 24 goal contributions this season (17G, 7A), 10 more than any of his teammates, he remains the creative and finishing heartbeat of this Sociedad side.

His form couldn’t be more compelling with nine goals in his last ten starts, and he’s scored in two of his last three meetings against Athletic Bilbao. With the added security of the assist angle, this looks like an excellent value play in a game where Sociedad will be counting on their captain.

The Spanish left-back returns to the Reale Arena, where he once played his home football, but the occasion could get the better of him—again. Yuri has picked up yellow cards in each of his last two games, both in the first half, and his direct matchup on Sunday is far from forgiving.

He’ll be tasked with defending Takefusa Kubo, who draws a staggering 2.21 fouls per 90, with his relentless dribbling and quick changes of pace. Yuri was also booked in the reverse fixture, and in a derby environment, this duel looks ripe for another caution.