AFC Wimbledon have a really strong record against their fellow top 10 sides in 2025. From nine games, they have won or drawn eight times, only losing at home to League Two runners-up Port Vale.

Notts County, on the other hand, have a poor record against top 10 sides in 2025, losing seven out of 10 fixtures. This is obviously less than ideal when heading into a play-off campaign, and shows that their patient style does not seem to wash against the division's better teams. Over the last 12 games, the form table has County in 17th position.

The Dons are experts at boiling a game down to very few chances. Their away games have seen fewer goals than any other League Two side other than Crewe, with whom they are equal. The average number of goals scored is a mere 1.7 in those away games.

Notts County also cannot be described as free-scoring, they've only scored more than once in a game on one occasion in their last six. Given what is at stake in this game, we expect a tight match with few chances. In the regular season, neither head-to-head game went over two goals (2-0, 1-0).

James Tilley is probably better known as a winger, but this season has most operated as a wing-back, whether from the left or right. He is a shoot-on-sight kind of player, with 32 of his 59 shots this season being taken from outside the box. It may be that kind of effort which can break the deadlock in this game.

Tilley has taken one or more shots in 26 out of 36 starts, which backs up the points made above. On the final day, Tilley operated from right wing back, allowing him to cut inside on his favoured left foot. This would be preferable for our bet, but not the be-all and end-all given his season-long stats and tendency to shoot from various positions.

Abbott has enjoyed a successful first season in senior football on loan from Spurs. The England youth international is into double figures for combined goals and assists, and even won the EFL’s goal of the season competition.

The energetic midfielder enjoys getting forward to support his attacking colleagues and has taken at least one shot in 30 of 37 appearances this season, including in both fixtures against AFC Wimbledon.  Like Tilley, the majority of Abbott’s shots are taken from outside the box, which we think there will be plenty of in a tight game like this.

As per our first bet builder, we think this will be a close-fought game between two teams of similar ability. It would not surprise us if this game finishes goalless, or if either side wins it by a one-goal margin, the latter has already happened between these two this term.

This will certainly be AFC Wimbledon’s aim, to keep the game as low margin as possible, and head back to London with the scores level or with a narrow lead. Given their recent record against the teams around them compared to Notts County’s, we think they will be able to dictate the rhythm of this encounter.

We’ve already taken Abbott to have 1+ shot, and we also think there is value in looking at the 2+ market too. This bet has landed in 17 of Abbott’s 37 starts in League Two this season, and 12 of 22 starts in 2025 so far. Abbott has grown in confidence at letting fly as his loan spell has gone on.

He managed two shots in the home game against AFC Wimbledon earlier in the season, so there’s no reason he couldn’t do it again here.

Experienced central midfielder Sam Hutchinson should get the nod for this game, with over 250 senior appearances he has a wealth of know how to draw upon, and has featured in play-off campaigns for Sheffield Wednesday in his younger years. He scored the winner at Grimsby on the final day to get the Dons into this position. Hutchinson has been booked in his last three appearance - in 13 starts, he has picked up six cards. 

In the play-offs, the only way you can miss the final is by being sent off, so even a yellow card in both legs would still make Hutchinson eligible for the final. Therefore, there is no real deterrent to picking up a card for a tactical foul, and in such a high-stakes game, the opportunity will present itself for Hutchinson to do so.