Patrick Dorgu to commit two or more fouls is a standout value pick at 3.20 with Betfair, especially when compared to prices as short as 1.20 with William Hill. The implied probability disparity is striking - Betfair’s 31.3% vs William Hill’s 83.3% - highlighting how heavily mis-priced this market could be. Despite being just 20 years old, Dorgu has quickly made a name for himself as a physically combative and disciplinary prone wide player. His foul numbers back this up:

• Averages 1.75 fouls per 90 minutes

• Committed at least one foul in each of his last seven appearances

• Hit 2+ fouls in four of those matches

• Committed two fouls in the reverse fixture

Set to start again on the left of midfield, Dorgu will likely face the tricky Álvaro Djaló, who is drawing two fouls per 90 this season - and an even more aggressive 3.49 per 90 over his last five games. With a European final on the horizon, the stakes are high. Expect Dorgu’s already cynical tendencies to increase as he’s tasked with containing one of Bilbao’s most dangerous attackers. In a game where defensive discipline may waver under pressure, the chances of two or more fouls looks far stronger than the 3.20 price tag suggests.