United may hold the advantage on aggregate, but they are unlikely to simply sit back; it’s not in their nor Ruben Amorim’s DNA. Athletic Club, meanwhile, have no choice but to go on the front foot in pursuit of a miraculous comeback.

At Old Trafford, United have taken three or more corners in 13 of their last 15, with their opponents doing the same in 10 of those games. On the road, Bilbao have hit the 3+ mark in 20 of 24 matches this season, showcasing their consistency in attack. Though they’ve held eight hosts under three corners, United’s output should still comfortably clear that number, especially if they get drawn into an end-to-end contest.

United have managed three or more shots on target in 21 of their 27 home games this season, including 4+ in every European home tie. Yet defensively, they remain vulnerable with 22 visiting teams having hit this line at Old Trafford, which includes all their continental opponents doing so.

Bilbao, while less prolific in this area, have managed 3+ shots on target in 16 of their last 23 away games. Needing to chase the game from the first whistle, expect them to push forward and test United’s backline throughout. Given 18 of their 24 hosts have also hit 3+ against them, United should oblige as well, making both sides more than capable of working the opposition keeper.

As Bilbao look to overturn a heavy deficit, Berenguer will be central to their attacking approach. He draws 1.2 fouls per 90 this season and has won two fouls in three of his last four starts. Having been substituted early in the reverse leg due to tactical setup, more minutes here should increase his involvement. Up against Manuel Ugarte and Casemiro, who commit 2.12 and 1.04 fouls per 90 respectively, Berenguer is well placed to draw at least one foul here.

Bilbao’s most frequent fouler (per game), Galarreta averages 2.33 fouls per 90 domestically. While his European average dips to 1.58, early knockout rounds saw him commit 14 fouls in six games. Facing United’s right flank of Patrick Dorgu (2.94 fouls drawn per 90) and Alejandro Garnacho (1.79), he’s likely to be tested repeatedly, giving this selection strong appeal regardless of the match scenario in which they need to desperately chase the game.

When the stakes are this high, in a European semi-final second leg, tempers can be lost, even for the calmest of sides. For Manchester United, recent numbers underline that trend. They’ve picked up at least two cards in each of their last nine matches and each of their last four at Old Trafford (a combined 16 bookings across this span on home soil). In Europe, that record holds too, four of their last five continental ties have seen them draw 2+ cards.

For Bilbao, card issues on the road are well documented. They’ve seen two or more cards in six of their last seven away matches, with a season-long average of 2.34 per game. In the first leg, both sides picked up three yellow cards, and with the intensity likely to be even higher in this fixture, a repeat of that fiery affair looks probable.

United's chaotic 4-3 defeat to Brentford marked the fifth time in their last seven matches that the Over 2.5 Goals line has been covered, four of those even sailed over the 3.5 mark. 

United’s European nights this season have been similarly goal-laden, with each of their last four continental fixtures seeing three or more goals.

While Bilbao’s domestic away fixtures have tended to be tighter, Europe has produced more open contests for them too, with three of their last five continental road games crossing the Over 2.5 threshold. Despite United’s commanding lead in the tie, a pragmatic shutdown seems unlikely, both stylistically and historically. All five previous meetings between these two clubs have seen at least three goals, suggesting another open contest is on the cards.

A tenacious presence on the flank, Dorgu’s youthful exuberance frequently results in fouls. He’s averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 and has committed at least one in each of his last seven appearances. He committed two fouls in the reverse leg and will likely be tasked with containing Alvaro Djaló, who draws two fouls per 90 this season, but 3.49 fouls per 90 across his last five appearances, making this line very appealing, especially at this price.

With injuries depleting Bilbao’s attacking options, Sannadi will carry increased responsibility. Despite limited minutes, he averages 0.72 shots on target per 90 and has registered in two of his last four European appearances. With Bilbao needing to chase the game, Sannadi is likely to be among their most active shooters.