While Holstein Kiel are fighting to escape the drop, Freiburg have their sights set on an historic Champions League debut. With both sides desperate for points, this fixture looks set for plenty of goals.

For Kiel, recent weeks have been their most productive spell of the campaign with back-to-back league wins for the first time ever in the Bundesliga. Those victories, matching the total from their previous 15 games combined, couldn’t have been more timely. Despite being 17th (second from bottom), their 1.5 goals per game average actually betters that of Freiburg's. But their glaring weakness lies at the back, 75 goals conceded, the league’s worst, makes a clean sheet unlikely. Unsurprisingly, BTTS has landed in eight of their last nine outings and in 75% of their games overall.

A Freiburg win could seal a first-ever Champions League berth if Dortmund and Leipzig slip up, and even in isolation, three points would lock in European football for next season. They’re unbeaten in four (W3, D1), have scored in seven straight games, and should relish the chance to go at the Bundesliga’s poorest defence. 

While their top-six standing is impressive, a negative goal difference (-1) speaks volumes about their inconsistency away from home. Despite four clean sheets in their last six away, they’ve struggled when tested against most capable attacking sides. Three of those four shutouts came against sides averaging less than 1.07 goals per game at home. They also shipped two goals to Kiel in the reverse fixture.

Bayern reclaimed their crown last weekend as Leverkusen stumbled, securing a record-extending 34th Bundesliga title. With the pressure now lifted, and buoyed by a celebratory home send-off, expect Vincent Kompany’s side to play with expressive, attacking freedom. Bayern average 2.92 goals per game across all competitions this season on home soil, which rises to 3.19 in the league.

That celebratory mood, however, may come at the expense of defensive focus and something a motivated Gladbach side, who are still eyeing a European place, will be eager to exploit. They've scored in 11 consecutive away matches, while conceding in 10 of them - a combination that has resulted in BTTS landing in 83% of their away fixtures across all competitions.

Historically, this is a fixture that rarely disappoints. Gladbach have scored in 12 of their last 14 meetings with Bayern and, notably, no team has beaten the Bavarians more times in the Bundesliga (28) than the Foals. With BTTS hitting in five of their last six, everything points towards goals from both teams.