Level on points and on goal difference, the margins between Newcastle and Chelsea couldn’t be any tighter. Newcastle have been a formidable force at St James' Park, they've scored 18 goals in their last five home league matches, and their overall tally at home this season is double what they’ve conceded. However, while they’ve recently strung together back-to-back clean sheets, those shutouts came against sides in the bottom half of the table, including relegated Ipswich.

Chelsea look to be hitting their stride at the right moment. After a mid-season slump, they’ve registered three consecutive away wins, re-igniting the attacking threat that saw them net 24 goals in their first eight away games. Although that was followed by a lull (just three goals in the next eight), recent performances including a 2-1 win at Fulham and a 3-1 victory over Liverpool underline their resurgent form.


Defensively, though, the Blues remain vulnerable. Just two clean sheets in their last 14 league away fixtures suggests Newcastle will get opportunities. Each of the last four league meetings between the two sides have seen goals scored at both ends.

Leverkusen officially handed their title back to Bayern Munich last weekend after being held by Freiburg. Second place is now mathematically locked in, so the incentive shifts toward completing a rare league double over Dortmund, something they haven’t done since the 2006/07 season. They’re unbeaten in their last seven Bundesliga outings (W4, D3) and have developed a positive knack for playing on Sundays, going 27 home matches unbeaten on this day of the week. However, their average of 1.13 goals conceded per home game in the league, and a 31% clean sheet rate, suggests they can be vulnerable.

Dortmund are one point outside the top four and will approach this game with urgency. Encouragingly, they’ve scored 2+ goals in four of their last five away league games. But their defence tells a very different story, conceding 1.88 goals per away game in the league and keeping just one clean sheet in their last eight away fixtures across all competitions. Shutting out a Leverkusen side averaging 2.13 goals per home game seems an ambitious ask, especially given that their sole clean sheet came against the league’s worst attack in St. Pauli, who average just 0.63 goals per home game. The reverse fixture finished 3-2 to Leverkusen, and each of the last three head-to-heads has delivered BTTS, too.